What's Going On Lately

I'm just going to talk a bit about what's going on in MMA lately. I didn't see any of the fights from Wednesday of last week or Saturday but I saw a few clips here and there and got the results. Anthony Smith took a beating from Glover Texeira. He went all out for a knockout in the first two rounds, gassed out and then lost teeth and suffered a broken orbital bone. Many were saying the fight should have been stopped much earlier. Excellent result for Glover because Smith went five rounds with Jon Jones. More on Jon Jones later.
Edson Barboza lost a close decision on his featherweight debut to Dan Ige. It's understandable that fighters will feel robbed if they lose a close decision at times but some take the loss better than others. Barboza's fellow countryman Jose Aldo seemed to take his loss against Marlon Moraes well even though many thought he won. Joanna took her loss to Weili Zhang well despite being known to moan about losses and I thought she did enough to get the decision. But Barboza is trying to get the decision overturned just because Dana White thought he won the fight. Well there have been decisions that went against how Dana saw them before and they stood. I think Barboza needs to learn from it and move on.
Walt Harris returned to the octagon after the tragic loss of his daughter. Somehow Overeem's chin held up to an early beating and he came back to win. He hurt Harris with a leg kick and that conditioned Walt to protect the leg so Overeem could go for a head kick. The Weasle pointed out a comparison between how Overeem got the finish and how Khabib holds his opponents down against the cage and his ground and pound. It was interesting. Did Overeem and his team drill that tactic because of Khabib I wonder? Looks like they were influenced by it and Alistair has significantly more weight to hold an opponent down with.
There has been a lot of talk about Jon Jones interested in a fight with Francis Ngannou since Jones and Francis tweeted that they were both interested in it. I think Jones saw something in the way Francis beat Rozenstruik and thought he'd fair better because of his movement, technique and fight IQ. The other thing is that Ovince St. Preux moved up to heavyweight too and even thought he lost to Ben Rothwell by split decision, I think that gave Jones the confidence to take a more serious interest. I said myself in my reaction to UFC249 "I think if he had more technique and straighter punches to harness the power he'd be unbeatable. He probably is anyway but I get a feeling that a fighter with great footwork and movement, better technique and a granite chin with the ability to use going for takedowns to stop Francis' attacks can beat him. But it looks like most fighters won't at the moment", about Francis and perhaps that's similar to what Jones saw. But the other thing is something that the Weasle pointed out. Francis took a counter shot to the head from Rozenstruik and an equilibrium shot behind the ear that normally finishes fighters or dazes them just enough to lead to them getting finished. Francis walked through these! Jones isn't allowing for that enough in my humble opinion. I also saw a clip of Francis saying he wasn't entirely happy with how he got the finish against Rozenstruik having watched it back. Francis is a fast learner and will probably improve on those things for his next fight in the octagon. There is also the fact that when Curtis Blaydes and Cain Velasques (known wrestlers) went for takedowns Francis stopped them easily because he didn't blow his load and gas out like against Stipe. So at the moment I think Francis v Jones would start off with Jones frustrating him but if Francis keeps his composure and fights smart he'll connect eventually. I'll go with Francis victory by early 3rd round KO as my prediction for now.
One more fight I want to talk about that's definitely due to happen is Tyron Woodley v Gilbert Burns at the end of the month. I watched Chael Sonnen on Youtube the other day and he's thrilled that this fight is happening. Tyron Woodley is a wrestler with knockout power and also has a black belt in Jiu Jitzu now. He beat Damien Maia in one of his title defences. Gilbert Burns is a Jiu Jitzu expert who also has knockout power. He was the first person in something like 10 years to knock out Maia. A wrestler against a grappler who both have the punching power to put their opponents' lights out is essentially how Chael put it. All of a sudden this fight is a lot more intriguing. I also tweeted that I can't wait for the Weasle's prediction video for that one and he acknowledged it with a like. So it should be an interesting fight.

UFC 249 - A Reaction

Let me start with that main event. I honestly didn't see that coming. It was a methodical demolition of Tony Ferguson by Justin Gaethje. It was so sad seeing Tony looking like his opponents usually do after fighting him. Round one went to Gaethje. You could give round two to Tony because of that uppercut that dropped Justin but Tony had no answer for him after that. Justin was able to attack the legs with kicks from punching range and did to Tony what I thought tony would do to him, punch and move. Justin looked scarily good and in the peak of concentration throughout as he picked his shots with precision. Also, his coach told him take about 10% off his punches because he was using too much energy and Justin followed instructions and looked pretty fresh the whole fight. Tony took a lot of damage from heavy punches and it was sad to see him get stopped, but in the end it was a merciful stoppage. He took heavy damage and withstood what would normally be knockout punches and suffered a broken orbital bone. Ouch! 0/1
I only saw bits and pieces of the co-main event. I'm not surprised by the result. It looked like Cejudo was never in trouble in that fight. Cruz complained about the stoppage but he took a knee to the head to get dropped and a lot of unanswered punches to the head to follow so I think it was sensible. 1/2
I thought Ngannou v Rozenstruik would go on for more than a few minutes if not a round but it only lasted twenty seconds. Ngannou took an equilibrium shot behind the ear and walked through it like it was nothing and he got tagged a second time but that only made him angry. If Rozenstruik had moved out to the right instead of ducking left it would have prolonged the fight. But who knows by how much? His wild swinging punches wouldn't be effective by a lot of fighters but the speed and power they come at you from Francis seems to make them unstoppable. I think if he had more technique and straighter punches to harness the power he'd be unbeatable. He probably is anyway but I get a feeling that a fighter with great footwork and movement, better technique and a granite chin with the ability to use going for takedowns to stop Francis' attacks can beat him. But it looks like most fighters won't at the moment. 2/3
I got Stephens v Kattar right. Stephens went in heavy and still got knocked out. I think anyone who misses weight by that much should be forced to go up a weight division. 3/4
I called Hardy v De Castro right as well. Hardy with the win. 4/5
I wasn't surprised by the result of Pettis beating Cowboy. I went with who I hoped would win rather than who I thought should win. Glad Cowboy took it to a decision though. 4/6
It seems Werdum had an off day. He was outstruck by Oleinik and, from what I heard there weren't that many opportunities to take it to the ground where Werdum is supposedly stronger due to superior Brazilian jiu jitzu. 5/7
Esparza v Waterson was a close fight and I'm disappointed Michelle lost. 5/8
I made my prediction for Hall v Jacare before Jacare tested positive for the corona virus and had to be pulled from the card so that prediction is N/A.
I predicted Luque to beat Price and I was proven correct. I'm told it was another war, which Luque was in a lot of recently. I saw Price's eye and the doctor's stoppage looked like the right call. 6/8
Mitchell defeated Rosa by split decision but I didn't make a prediction for that one so that's another N/A.
Finally Ryan Spann defeated Sam Alvey by split decision in the opening fight of the night. It looked to be that close in the octagon alright judging by reports but it was one I called the other way in my predictions. Total score: 6/9. I'll take that. Not bad for a casual!
There's another card tonight from Jacksonville with Anthony Smith v Glover Texeira as the main event. Michael Johnson and Sijara Eubanks are two others that spring to mind on the card. Oh yes! Ovince St Preux is moving up to heavyweight for the card. Interesting to see how that goes for him. Then there's another one Saturday. It's a busy week in the UFC. I'll talk about those other cards in the next blog.

UFC 249 - A Casual's Predictions

Today, as the title says, I'm going to do my predictions for UFC249 which is due to take place in Jacksonville, Florida this weekend.

I'll start with the main event and work my way down.
I'm going to go with Tony Ferguson for the main event. I think he can outlast Justin Gaethje and can recover quicker if he gets rocked.
I'm going with Henry Cejudo in the bantamweight title fight. Having watched his fight with Moraes and seeing his walls decorated with his winnings from wrestling and MMA, I think he has a tenacity and will to win that'll help him find a way no matter what Dominick Cruz comes up with. I also think Cruz's reach and range are overestimated.
I'm going to go with Francis Ngannou in his fight with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Both have the touch of death in their punches. I doesn't look like they've used much power or technique sometimes and all of a sudden their opponent is down. Rozenstruik is an elite kickboxer, as far as I'm aware, but we have one common denominator to compare them - Alistair Overeem. Overeem was an elite kickboxer before transitioning to MMA and was swiftly dealt with by Francis whereas Rozenstruik was outclassed by a great gameplan until he caught Overeem in the end in what was a controversial stoppage at the time. 
I think Kattar has the skill to overcome the threat from Stephen's power and leg kicks.
I honestly haven't done my research on De Castro and that is why I'm predicting Greg Hardy to win that one.
I'm going to let my heart rule my head for the main preliminary fight. I'm going with Donald Cerrone to beat Anthony Pettis. I corrected last week's blog after seeing their first fight. It was an easy win for Pettis. But Cowboy is in the prelims now and the pressure is off after his poor showing against Conor. So I expect him to show up and put on a good fight.
I'm going with Oleinik to beat Werdum. Although a part of me feels I could be underestimating Werdum.
I'm hoping as much as predicting that the karate hottie Michelle Waterson beats Carla Esparza.
Uriah Hall is capable of beating the best middleweights around on a good day. He beat Gegard Mousasi. If he shows up in good form Saturday I think he'll beat Jacare, but a Jacare win wouldn't surprise me. So my prediction is Uriah Hall for this one.
Not sure about Vicente Luque v Nico Price. I think Luque can do a lot of damage when he gets into a rhythm but, as far as I know, Price is known for unconventional finishes. I'm leaning toward Luque in this one.
I said in a tweet that I don't know who's going to win in the featherweight bout between Mitchell and Rosa. The reason being...? I don't know those fighters to be quite honest.
Finally the 29% loss rate Ryan Spann faces the seemingly eternally happy and smiling Sam Alvey with his 39% loss rate at light heavyweight in the opening fight of the night. I'm going with Alvey for the win in this one but don't ask me why.

Long Time No Post

Haven't posted in quite a while because I wasn't feeling well. Tested negative for covid 19 but the doctor reckons it could have been a false negative. Anyway, I didn't have the physical or mental energy to do anything other than get by. So this is just a post to get back into the swing of it.
As we all know by now, Khabib is in Ramadan and Justin Gaethje is to fight Tony Ferguson for the interim lightweight belt. Another one! Hopefully the winner won't be stripped this time. I'm hoping Tony wins because he deserves to fight for the title more. Looks like the UFC249 event will be held in Florida. Amanda Nunes was supposed to face Felicia Spencer but that fight is off now because Nunes doesn't feel she has enough time to prepare. Looks like Dominick Cruz will challenge Henry Cejudo for the bantamweight belt in the co-main event. There's a very interesting fight headlining the preliminary fights between Cowboy Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. Pettis had an easy win over Cowboy the first time they fought with a savage liver kick after hurting him moments earlier. I hope Cowboy shows up and makes the adjustment this time though. A Fight I'm really interested in is Jairzihno Rozenstruik v Francis Ngannou. Francis has faced a high level kickboxer before in Alistair Overeem, who has more experience than Rozenstruik and was outclassing Rozenstruik until his chin let him down again. Both Ngannou and Rozenstruik have the ability to seemingly just touch people and knock them out so that should be fascinating. We'll hear every punch and kick in an empty arena. I was thinking about this fight and I'd like Francis to win. I don't know Rozenstruik enough to like him yet. Francis also disposed of some big threats in the heavyweight division before and after his title fight, so I feel he has bigger star power overall and deserves another title chance a bit more. That is why I'd like Francis to win but I still hope Jairzinho has success building his way to a title shot eventually. I don't want Francis' star power to fade but I feel it could if he loses this, given the short memories of too many MMA fans.
I'll leave it there for now and hopefully I'll be recovered enough to get back to weekly, or fortnightly if there isn't enough MMA going on, posts from here on.